A-Maybin Waste…..

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Aaron Maybin‘s career as a Buffalo Bill was kind of like Halloween III (No Michael Myers? Really?): They both lasted longer than they should have and were the results of some very questionable decision-making, but we’ll never forget them because of how mind-numbingly awful both were. (Apologies to any Halloween III fans).

But how putrid was Maybin’s career, really? How epic of a failure can we truly consider this?

As depressing a question as it may be to ask (and especially to research), I think it’s one worth the time. In order to make this judgment, we took a look back at DE’s taken in the first round since 1999, but not including last year’s rookies. The results, unsurprisingly, reflected what we thought we knew: Maybin was a bust of epic proportions.

The Contenders

Year	Tm	Name	Career Sacks
1999	DAL	Ebenezer Ekuban	36.5
1999	ATL	Patrick Kerney	82.5
1999	TEN	Jevon Kearse	74
1999	SEA	Lamar King	12
2000	CLE	Courtney Brown	19
2000	BUF	Erik Flowers	5
2000	NYJ	Shaun Ellis	72.5
2000	NYJ	John Abraham	102.5
2001	GNB	Jamal Reynolds	3
2001	NWE	Richard Seymour	48.5
2001	SFO	Andre Carter	66
2001	CIN	Justin Smith	65
2002	NYJ	Bryan Thomas	31
2002	IND	Dwight Freeney	94
2002	CAR	Julius Peppers	89
2002	NOR	Charles Grant	47
2003	ARI	Calvin Pace	34.5
2003	PHI	Jerome McDougle	3
2003	CHI	Michael Haynes	5.5
2003	OAK	Tyler Brayton	15.5
2003	NWE	Ty Warren	20.5
2004	MIN	Kenechi Udeze	11
2004	NOR	Will Smith	55
2005	MIN	Erasmus James	5
2005	SDG	Luis Castillo	19
2005	DAL	Marcus R. Spears	8
2006	SFO	Manny Lawson	14.5
2006	NYG	Mathias Kiwanuka	23.5
2006	CLE	Kamerion Wimbley	35.5
2006	HOU	Mario Williams	48
2006	KAN	Tamba Hali	41.5
2007	DEN	Jarvis Moss	4.5
2007	DAL	Anthony Spencer	15.5
2007	STL	Adam Carriker	3.5
2007	ATL	Jamaal Anderson	4.5
2007	TAM	Gaines Adams	13.5
2008	NYJ	Vernon Gholston
2008	SEA	Lawrence Jackson	12.5
2008	STL	Chris Long	17.5
2008	JAX	Derrick Harvey	8
2009	BUF	Aaron Maybin
2009	PIT	Evander Hood	4
2009	KAN	Tyson Jackson	1
2009	DEN	Robert Ayers	1.5

The Raw Numbers

	Games	GS	Sacks	Tackles
All 1st Rd DEs (Career)	3582.00	2792.00	1273.50	7140.50
Per Season:	13.67	10.66	4.86	27.25
Per Game:	–	–	0.36	1.99
Per Player:	81.41	63.45	28.94	162.28
Maybin:	26.00	1.00	0.00	14.00
Maybin Per Game:	–	–	0.00	1.61

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out how poorly Maybin stacks up against this competition. In fact, it doesn’t even take a Marshawn Lynch to see that Maybin is a historically notable bust. No in-depth statistical analysis is really necessary to prove this point, but we’ll take a deeper look at the numbers just to hammer the point home. (Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are to DE’s taken in the 1st round since 1999.)

Maybin and his Contemporaries

• 2 first round DE’s have recorded 0 sacks
• Maybin and Gholston
• 6 first round DE’s didn’t record sacks in their 1st year
• McDougle, Gholston, Maybin, Ayers, Jackson, Anderson
• 5 first round DE’s didn’t record sacks in their 2nd year
• Gholston, Maybin, Carriker, Lawson, James
• 5 first round DE”s had fewer tackles in their first year than Maybin
• 1 first round DE had fewer tackles in his second year than Maybin (Erasmus James)
• All Bills Fans had as many sacks as Maybin the past two years
• All Bills Fans started as many games as Maybin did his rookie year
• All Bills Fans were scratched 6 fewer times than Maybin his 2nd year

Since 1999, the average first year for all first round DE’s selected was as such:

	Yr1 G	Yr1 GS	Yr1 Sks	Yr1 Tks
Average	14.80	8.18	3.95	25.82

Maybin’s first year was, of course, much worse than the average first year from 1st round DE’s. In fact, the average first round DE had more tackles and sacks in their first year alone than Maybin had in his entire two year career.

The average 2nd year for the first round DE’s in question:

	Yr2 G	Yr2 GS	Yr2 Sks	Yr2 Tks
Average	13.36	9.57	4.50	27.45

Here we can see that, on average, DE’s saw their stats improve from their first to their second year in the league. Maybin, of course, regressed during his 2nd year in the league, going from a whopping 9 tackles and 0 games started in his first year to not dressing for 6 games and recording all of 5 tackles in his 2nd year.

Clearly, Maybin does not stack up well at all against his contemporaries. But the story actually gets a little worse when we expand the study just a tiny bit.

For instance, if we include 2nd round DE’s selected during that time, we find only 6 drafted (out of 38) that recorded 0 sacks for their careers. Combined with the first round picks, that means 8 out of 82 DEs drafted in the 1st or 2nd round since 1999 have gone on to record 0 sacks in their career, with only one player (Gholston) drafted higher than Maybin successfully achieving this (dubious) accomplishment.

Expanding this further (and even more damning to Maybin), fifteen defensive backs taken in the first round since 1999 have recorded more sacks than Maybin did during his stint in Buffalo.

That’s right: 15 DBs, who by their very nature should record more INTs than sacks, managed to bring the QB down once more than Maybin did in the NFL.

The Verdict

Without expanding the study to go back even further, it’s difficult to say that Maybin is the worst bust of all time. But, in looking at the stats and figures above, it doesn’t seem a stretch to say he is the worst bust in the past 10 years from the DE position. One might make an argument for Gholston, but there is one important thing to remember about Gholston when compared to Maybin: Gholston is, as of this writing, still employed, whereas Maybin is not.

Will some team take a flier on Maybin? I suppose anything is possible. But the word is Maybin has actually lost weight since his first year in the league. He came in at around 250 pounds, and supposedly was down to 228 during this training camp. Exactly where does a 228 pound LB or DE come into play in any defensive scheme? There are DBs who would appear to have more upper body strength than Maybin, so I would have a very difficult time believing that Maybin will go on to a successful career anywhere in football.

In the end, there doesn’t seem to be much use in crying over spilled milk or worrying about sunk costs, but it is kind of fun to point fingers, so lest we forget:

Former coach Dick Jauron, for instance, was the deciding voice on the Aaron Maybin pick.

Thanks a lot, Dick.